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�A cogitation by a group of prominent seismologists suggests that a practice of subtle but active faults makes the risk of earthquakes to the New York City area substantially greater than erstwhile believed. Among other things, they say that the controversial Indian Point nuclear power plants, 24 miles north of the smicity and also in the thick of a large population that is at risk of exposure in case of an accident," says the newspaper. "This is clearly one of the least favorable sites in our cogitation area from an earthquake hazard and risk perspective."

The findings comes at a time when Entergy, the owner of Indian Point, is trying to relicense the deuce operating plants for an additional 20 years - a move being fought by surrounding communities and the New York State Attorney General. Last accrue the lawyer general, alerted to the then-unpublished Lamont data, told a Nuclear Regulatory Commission panel in a filing: "New information developed in the last 20 years disclose a substantially higher likelihood of significant earthquake activity in the vicinity of [Indian Point] that could pass the seism design for the readiness." The state alleges that Entergy has not presented new information on earthquakes past 1979. However, in a little-noticed decision this July 31, the instrument panel rejected the argument on procedural reason. A reservoir at the attorney general's office said the department of State is considering its options.

The characteristics of New York's geology and human footprint may increment the problem. Unlike in California, many New York quakes occur near the surface - in the upper roman mile or so - and they occur not in the broken-up, more ductile formations common where quakes are haunt, but rather in the extremely difficult, rigid rocks underlying Manhattan and practically of the lower Hudson Valley. Such rocks tin build prominent stresses, then suddenly and efficiently send energy over long distances. "It's like putting a hard stone in a vise," aforementioned Seeber. "Nothing happens for a while. Then it goes with a be intimate." Earthquake-resistant building codes were not introduced to New York City until 1995, and are not in effect at all in many other communities. Sinuous skyscrapers and bridges might get by with minimal damage, aforesaid Sykes, simply many elder, unreinforced threesome to six-story brick buildings could crumble.

Art Lerner-Lam, associate director of Lamont for seismology, geology and tectonophysics, pointed out that the region's major highways including the New York State Thruway, commuter and long-distance rail lines, and the main gas, oil and power transmitting lines all cross the parallel active faults, making them in particular vulnerable to being cut. Lerner-Lam, wHO was non involved in the inquiry, said that the identification of the seismic line near Indian Point "is a major substantiation of a feature that bears on the long-term earthquake risk of the northeastern United States." He called for policymakers to develop more information on the region's vulnerability, to claim a closer look at land enjoyment and development, and to make investments to strengthen critical infrastructure.

"This is a landmark study in many ways," aforesaid Lerner-Lam. "It gives us the best possible evidence that we have an earthquake chance here that should be a ingredient in whatever planning determination. It crystallizes the argument that this hazard is not random. There is a anatomical structure to the location and timing of the earthquakes. This enables us to contemplate risk in an entirely different way. And since we are able to do that, we should be required to do that."

NEW YORK EARTHQUAKE BRIEFS AND QUOTES:

Existing U.S. Geological Survey seismic hazard maps show New York City as facing more hazard than many other eastern U.S. areas. Three areas are somewhat more active - northernmost New York State, New Hampshire and South Carolina - but they have a great deal lower populations and fewer structures. The wider forces at make include pressure exerted from continuing expansion of the mid-Atlantic Ridge thousands of miles to the east; slow due west migration of the North American continent; and the area's intricate labyrinth of old faults, sutures and zones of weakness caused by past collisions and rifting.

Due to New York's past history, population concentration and fragile, interdependent infrastructure, a 2001 analysis by the Federal Emergency Management Agency ranks it the 11th almost at-risk U.S. city for earthquake legal injury. Among those ahead: Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle and Portland. Behind: Salt Lake City, Sacramento, Anchorage.

New York's first seismic place was plant up at Fordham University in the 1920s. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, in Palisades, N.Y., has operated stations of the Cross since 1949, and immediately coordinates a network of about 40.

Dozens of small quakes hold been felt in the New York area. A Jan. 17, 2001 magnitude 2.4, centered in the Upper East Side - the first ever detected in Manhattan itself--may have originated on the 125th Street fault. Some people thinking it was an explosion, but no one was harmed.

The most recent felt quake, a magnitude 2.1 on July 28, 2008, was centered near Milford, N.J. Houses shook and a woman at St. Edward's Church said she felt the building rise up under her feet - but no damage was done.

Questions more or less the seismal safety of the Indian Point atomic power plant, which lies amid a metropolitan area of more than 20 million hoi polloi, were embossed in previous scientific written document in 1978 and 1985.

Because the hard rocks under much of New York can build up a lot strain before breakage, researchers believe that modest faults as short as 1 to 10 kilometers can crusade magnitude 5 or 6 quakes.

In general, magnitude 3 quakes occur about 10 times more often than magnitude fours; 100 times more than magnitude fives; and so on. This principle is called the Gutenberg-Richter relationship.

LEAD AUTHOR LYNN SYKES

On the study and earthquake risk: "New York is not as prone to earthquakes as California and Japan, but they do bechance. This study takes a more realistic look at the possible action of larger ones, and why earthquakes concentrate in certain places. To understand risk, you have to multiply fortune by assets, and vulnerability. When you factor that in, our risk is high. Too much aid has been paid to the horizontal surface of jeopardy, and not enough to the risk. Earthquake hazard is about the same today as in 1609 when Henry Hudson sailed up the River. But earthquake hazard is practically, much higher today, since the number of people, assets and their vulnerability are so much greater."

On faults near Indian Point nuclear imbed: "We guess that the intersection of these deuce features organism so close to Indian Point makes it a place of greater endangerment than most other points on the map."

COAUTHOR LEONARDO SEEBER

On estimating hazard: "Most people undervalue the hazard here. Any conservative access will look at geologically similar environments. If you do that, we are similar to Bhuj, India [where a 2001 magnitude 7 quake killed over 15,000 people]. There was no obvious sign of melodic phrase there. There is a mystery here to be solved, and we punter step back and do our homework."

On preparing: "Once you bear that one fault in a crime syndicate is active, you wagerer consider that all the faults in that family could be active. We need to adapt our structures with that in mind."

COAUTHOR JOHN ARMBRUSTER

On past times and future quakes: "You could deliberate whether a magnitude 6 or 7 is possible, but we've already had three order of magnitude fives, so that is very naturalistic. There is no one now alive now to remember that last one, so people tend to forget. And having merely a partial 300-year history, we may not get seen everything we could see. There could be surprises - things larger than we have e'er seen."

The Earth Institute at Columbia University mobilizes the sciences, education and public policy to achieve a sustainable earth. 7% interdisciplinary research among more than 500 scientists in various fields, the Institute is adding to the knowledge necessary for addressing the challenges of the twenty-first century and beyond. With over 2 dozen associated degree curricula and a vibrant company program, the Earth Institute is educating new leadership to suit professionals and scholars in the growing field of sustainable development. We crop alongside governments, businesses, nonprofit organization organizations and individuals to devise innovative strategies to protect the future of our planet. http://www.earth.columbia.edu/

Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, a member of The Earth Institute at Columbia University, is one of the world's preeminent research centers seeking profound knowledge about the source, evolution and future of the natural world. More than three hundred research scientists study the planet from its deepest interior to the outer reaches of its ambiance, on every continent and in every ocean. From global mood change to earthquakes, volcanoes, nonrenewable resources, environmental hazards and beyond, Observatory scientists provide a rational footing for the difficult choices facing humanity in the planet's stewardship. http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/

Source: Kevin Krajick

The Earth Institute at Columbia University

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